Arthur Hayes forecasts a peak in the crypto market by March, followed by a significant correction.

Arthur Hayes, ex-BitMEX CEO, predicts cryptocurrency market peak in mid-March 2025, followed by sharp decline. He wrote on X that Fed's quantitative tightening policy continues at $60bn per month, reducing balance sheet. His forecast for crypto peak in mid to late March equals $180bn liquidity removal through tightening from January to March. Bitcoin's 2022 slump linked to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's bond issuance, draining $2tn from Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). Hayes argues Treasury spending down general account at Fed will boost system liquidity, aiding Bitcoin short-term. He believes RRP will decrease from ~$237bn to zero in Q1 as money market funds withdraw for higher-yielding bills. Tax deadlines in April seen as further bearish factor for crypto, leading to massive correction.