Dogecoin Collapse or Bottoming Out? On‑Chain Risk Reaches Extreme Levels

crypthub

11/18/2025, 9:30:10 PM

Market Overview

Dogecoin is at a crossroads where weakening price structure meets an unusually low on‑chain risk reading. Analysts compare a multi‑year DOGE/USDT channel with Alphafractal’s Reserve Risk framework to gauge whether the move is a breakdown or a long‑term bottom. The current price sits near $0.157, close to the channel’s lower mid‑line. This positioning sets the stage for potential directional shifts.

On‑Chain Risk Insight

Reserve Risk is calculated as price divided by the “HODL Bank,” representing long‑term holders’ opportunity cost. Low Reserve Risk values, now in the green band, historically signal attractive risk‑reward zones, while high values indicate overheating. The latest data shows Reserve Risk compressed in this green “value” area, suggesting price is cheap relative to cumulative holder conviction. This metric does not forecast direction but marks an extreme value environment.

Price Structure and Support Levels

DOGE trades within a broad ascending channel defined since 2021, with a lower “Bottom Line” just above $0.07 and an upper “TopLine” near $1.30. The mid‑line around $0.27 has repeatedly acted as resistance, and the two‑year moving average runs through the channel’s center. Recent price action slipped below this average, now hovering near $0.15, the lower mid‑channel support. A break of this support could trigger a steep decline toward the $0.07 floor.

Current Outlook

Structurally, DOGE is weakening below long‑term averages, while on‑chain metrics indicate strong holder conviction at historically low price levels. The convergence of a low Reserve Risk and fragile price support creates a pivotal moment for the token. Traders watch the $0.15 line; a breach may confirm a deeper correction, whereas stability could hint at a bottoming process.