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>>USD/SGD: Remarkable Turnaround as MAS Policy Expectations Diminish – OCBC Analysis

USD/SGD: Remarkable Turnaround as MAS Policy Expectations Diminish – OCBC Analysis

crypthub

about 1 hour ago

Reversal Overview

The USD/SGD pair fell to a multi‑month low near 1.3250 in February, then rallied to around 1.3420 by the end of March. This 1.7% swing signalled an unexpected resilience of the Singapore dollar. The move coincided with fading expectations of Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) policy easing.

Technical Drivers

The rally broke the 50‑day moving average at 1.3350 and later cleared the psychological 1.3400 level. Volume surged during the reversal, indicating strong institutional participation. Key technical bands now sit between 1.3300‑1.3500, with 1.3450 acting as a near‑term ceiling.

MAS Policy Shift

MAS manages the Singapore dollar via the S$NEER policy band rather than interest rates. Market odds of an April easing fell from about 65% in mid‑February to roughly 35% by late March after core inflation eased to 2.8% and Q4 2024 GDP was revised up to 2.4%. Reduced easing bets removed downward pressure on the SGD.

Outlook

OCBC projects USD/SGD to trade within 1.3300‑1.3500 through Q2 2025, citing a cautiously neutral stance. Risks lean toward further SGD strength if global risk aversion rises or MAS holds a firmer stance. Investors should watch the April MAS review and Singapore’s Q1 2025 GDP release.