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>>Bitcoin is trading beneath the ETF cost basis, with MVRV indicators pointing to increasing pressure.

Bitcoin is trading beneath the ETF cost basis, with MVRV indicators pointing to increasing pressure.

crypthub

about 2 hours ago

Price Decline

Bitcoin entered a sharp downtrend in late January, continuing into February with a free‑fall that broke key psychological levels. The cryptocurrency fell below the average realized price of Bitcoin ETFs, intensifying pressure on that investor group. On‑chain data shows the price now trading around $68,000, a modest 1.58% rise in the last 24 hours.

ETF Realized Value and MVRV

The average realized price for Bitcoin ETFs sits near $80,000, while the MVRV (market‑value‑to‑realized‑value) index slipped below 1, a historic stress signal. An MVRV under 1 means unrealized losses dominate, prompting emotion‑driven selling. Analysts warn that short‑term rebounds will face strong resistance until the metric stabilizes.

Resistance and Outlook

If MVRV steadies in the 0.8–0.9 band, it could indicate bear pressure is waning and a brief upside may follow toward the $80k level. A continued decline in MVRV would exacerbate ETF sell‑offs, feeding further price drops. The resistance at the ETF realized price could become a decisive barrier for any recovery.

Recent Market Flow

February saw a net outflow of about $1.08 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, following a $1.61 billion withdrawal in January. These capital movements reflect mounting nervousness among ETF investors. Combined with the price dip, the data underscores a challenging environment for Bitcoin’s near‑term momentum.