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>>Arthur Hayes declares the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle has ended and predicts a new "long bull" trend.

Arthur Hayes declares the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle has ended and predicts a new "long bull" trend.

crypthub

2 days ago

Bitcoin Cycle Shift

Arthur Hayes suggests Bitcoin's traditional four-year price cycle has concluded. He argues the cycle is now primarily driven by shifts in global liquidity, moving beyond the influence of halving events. Hayes posits that the cycle's influence is directly tied to the interplay between the US dollar and the yuan. This represents a significant departure from previous market behavior.

Liquidity as the Dominant Factor

The value of Bitcoin, according to Hayes, is ultimately relative and primarily measured against the US dollar. He identifies monetary policy in both the US and China as critical drivers of Bitcoin's price movements. China’s monetary influence and the yuan's rising global relevance are key considerations. This alters the typical pattern seen in previous cycles.

Future Cycle Dynamics

Hayes anticipates a potentially prolonged cycle due to political factors and loose monetary policies. He specifically references US debt reduction efforts and China's response to deflation. If these trends persist, Bitcoin is projected to experience renewed growth. This signals a different trajectory than past cycles.

Broader Market Context

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and diverging US and Chinese policies have radically changed the market structure. These factors contribute to the invalidation of the old four-year cycle model. Hayes maintains Bitcoin's position as a leading form of money.