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>>Despite VanEck’s optimistic outlook, prediction markets assign Bitcoin merely a 9% probability of reaching $1 million by 2030.

Despite VanEck’s optimistic outlook, prediction markets assign Bitcoin merely a 9% probability of reaching $1 million by 2030.

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about 3 hours ago

Bullish Analyst Outlook

VanEck’s digital‑asset head Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin will top $1 million within five years, likening its spread to video‑game adoption. He points to the first central‑bank purchase as a watershed moment. VanEck’s base model projects $2.9 million by 2050, and firms such as ARK, Bernstein and Bitwise have similar high targets.

Current Price Gap

Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 when Sigel spoke, requiring roughly a 12‑fold jump to hit $1 million. It opened around $81,400, its highest since Jan 31, and has risen 18% this month while still 16% below its year‑high. The all‑time peak was $126,198 in Oct 2025.

Prediction Market Skepticism

Prediction‑market odds are modest. Manifold gives a 9% chance of $1 million before 2030 and 27% for the 2040s, while Polymarket puts a 2% chance for 2026 but a 69% chance for $90,000. Despite institutional inflows into platforms like Kalshi, betting prices remain low.

Contrasting Views

Some investors remain skeptical. Ray Dalio doubts Bitcoin can become a global reserve asset, and Peter Schiff argues it cannot replace gold. The divide between bullish analyst models and cautious market bets fuels ongoing debate over a seven‑figure timeline.

Despite VanEck’s optimistic outlook, prediction markets assign Bitcoin merely a 9% probability of reaching $1 million by 2030.

Bullish Analyst Outlook

Current Price Gap

Prediction Market Skepticism

Contrasting Views

Despite VanEck’s optimistic outlook, prediction markets assign Bitcoin merely a 9% probability of reaching $1 million by 2030.