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>>AUD/USD holds steady just under a key three‑year peak as traders prepare for a decisive CPI report

AUD/USD holds steady just under a key three‑year peak as traders prepare for a decisive CPI report

crypthub

about 7 hours ago

Market Stance

The AUD/USD pair is tightening inside a narrow rectangle between 0.6850 and 0.6950, a level not breached since early 2021. Trading volume has slipped, reflecting a pause ahead of Australia’s quarterly CPI release. Traders are reluctant to push the pair higher without clear fundamental support, keeping it just below three‑year highs.

CPI Stakes

The upcoming CPI measures headline inflation and a trimmed‑mean core figure that the Reserve Bank of Australia uses to set policy. Consensus projects a 1.1% quarterly rise (about 3.5% annual) with a core reading near 3.8%. A core CPI above 4.0% could spark renewed RBA hawkishness, while a reading under 3.5% would reinforce expectations of a completed tightening cycle.

Trade Outlook

Technical indicators show the pair holding above key moving averages but MACD momentum is fading, a classic pre‑news divergence. A surprise‑high CPI may break the 0.6950 resistance and test 0.7050, whereas a soft print could pull the price toward the 0.6750‑0.6800 support zone. Traders are trimming size and preparing risk controls as volatility is expected to spike once the data is out.