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>>Canada's February CPI is projected to dip modestly ahead of the crucial BoC rate meeting

Canada's February CPI is projected to dip modestly ahead of the crucial BoC rate meeting

crypthub

3/16/2026, 9:01:25 AM

CPI Outlook and Drivers

Economists see February headline CPI at 2.8% YoY, down from 3.0% in January, with core inflation also easing as supply chains normalize and energy prices fall. Food inflation remains above the headline at about 4.2% YoY, while gasoline is roughly 5% lower year‑over‑year. Shelter costs stay elevated, driven by higher mortgage interest and tight rental supply, offsetting disinflation elsewhere.

Bank of Canada Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada meets on March 5 with the policy rate steady at 4.75%. Governor Macklem says more evidence of sustained inflation progress is needed before any cuts, so markets expect the rate to stay unchanged. The upcoming statement and press conference will be closely read for forward‑guidance cues.

Market Implications

Analysts anticipate the first BoC rate cut in Q2 2025 if CPI continues to decline, with bond markets pricing about 75 bps of cuts for the year. A February surprise could shift the timing of those cuts. Post‑meeting language will provide key signals on future policy direction.