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>>Forecasted surge in prediction markets drives gains for Robinhood and Coinbase, with Bernstein estimating a $1 trillion upside.

Forecasted surge in prediction markets drives gains for Robinhood and Coinbase, with Bernstein estimating a $1 trillion upside.

crypthub

about 9 hours ago

Market Surge

Prediction market volumes are set to quadruple in 2026, with estimates reaching $240 billion – a 370% jump from 2025. Bernstein projects the sector could hit $1 trillion annually by the early 2030s, driven by an 80% compound annual growth rate. In the first months of 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket together generated about $60 billion, already surpassing the total $51 billion volume recorded in all of 2025.

Platform Leaders

Kalshi controls more than 90% of U.S. prediction trading, with weekly volume now over $3 billion versus $100 million a year ago. Polymarket shows similar rapid expansion, contributing to the overall surge. Robinhood and Coinbase added Kalshi’s markets in 2025 and 2024, prompting their shares to rise 10% and 6% respectively.

Regulatory Outlook

Although state‑level legal challenges persist, analysts expect clearer guidance from the SEC and CFTC to reinforce market legitimacy. Bernstein believes regulatory scrutiny will not impede long‑term growth. The sector’s expansion pace rivals the AI boom, positioning prediction markets as a fast‑growing non‑AI industry.

Forecasted surge in prediction markets drives gains for Robinhood and Coinbase, with Bernstein estimating a $1 trillion upside.

Market Surge

Platform Leaders

Regulatory Outlook

Forecasted surge in prediction markets drives gains for Robinhood and Coinbase, with Bernstein estimating a $1 trillion upside.