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>>Canadian Dollar Remains Stable Against USD as Traders Await Trump's Key SOTU Address for Market Outlook

Canadian Dollar Remains Stable Against USD as Traders Await Trump's Key SOTU Address for Market Outlook

crypthub

about 4 hours ago

Market Stability

CAD/USD stayed in the 0.7350-0.7380 range as traders await Trump’s SOTU, creating pre‑speech paralysis. Volume dropped about 40%, showing hesitation. Typical commodity and policy drivers have left the pair flat.

Technical Landscape

The pair consolidates with resistance at 0.7400 and support near 0.7320-0.7330; the 200‑day average is 0.7365. A breakout needs a strong trigger, likely the speech. Sentiment stays neutral.

Fundamental Drivers

Canada posted stronger‑than‑expected job growth and oil above $75, while gas fell 8%. The Bank of Canada remains cautious versus the Fed. Trade‑policy cues in the address, especially on USMCA and energy, could shift expectations.

Potential Impact

Institutions cut CAD/USD exposure ~25% and bought volatility protection, lifting implied vol to 8.5%. A trade‑friendly speech could lift the loonie 1‑2%; protectionist talk might drop it 1.5‑3%. Longer‑term trends still depend on demographics, productivity and the energy transition.