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>>GBP/USD outlook: The crucial 1.3430 support level is under intense pressure from dovish Bank of England signals.

GBP/USD outlook: The crucial 1.3430 support level is under intense pressure from dovish Bank of England signals.

crypthub

about 6 hours ago

Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD pair is testing the 1.3430 support, which coincides with the 200‑day moving average, a key Fibonacci level, and historic volume clusters. Lower highs and bearish MACD crossovers on daily and weekly charts signal weakening momentum. RSI sits near oversold territory without a buying surge. A break below 1.3430 may expose the 1.3350 secondary support and the 1.3200 zone.

Policy Influence

Recent UK data—softer February inflation, weaker Q4 growth, and rising unemployment—push expectations toward a dovish BoE. Futures now price about 50 bps of rate cuts by year‑end. The Fed’s relatively hawkish stance widens the GBP/USD rate‑differential, adding pressure on the pound. Policy divergence is a key bearish driver.

Sentiment and Risks

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan flag heightened downside risk, warning of stop‑loss cascades if 1.3430 fails. Oversold conditions, however, could spark a technical rebound, especially on stronger UK data or safe‑haven demand. Positioning shows growing short sterling hedges and high open interest around 1.3430. Traders should monitor upcoming UK releases and BoE commentary for decisive signals.