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>>Rabobank cautions that persistent inflation will push back any further Fed rate cuts.

Rabobank cautions that persistent inflation will push back any further Fed rate cuts.

crypthub

about 5 hours ago

Fed Rate Cut Timeline

Rabobank now expects the Federal Reserve to postpone its first rate cut until the second half of 2026. Earlier forecasts for early‑2026 easing have been withdrawn. The bank warns the Fed may keep rates unchanged or even raise them through mid‑2026.

Why Inflation Remains Sticky

Core inflation stays above the 2% goal because services, shelter costs and wages are resilient. The labor market is tight, with unemployment near historic lows. The Fed’s preferred PCE gauge has not shown a sustained decline, prompting caution.

Market Implications

Bond yields have risen as traders price out early cuts, and equity valuations face pressure from higher financing costs. Rate‑sensitive sectors such as housing, auto and small‑business lending may stay constrained. A stronger dollar could hurt export‑oriented companies.

Effect on Borrowers and Savers

Mortgage, auto loan and credit‑card rates are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Savers continue to enjoy higher returns on deposits, though those may ease once cuts begin. Overall, cheap money remains out of reach until data clearly improves.