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>>USD/CHF deadlock: steering through US trade doubts and Swiss economic pressures

USD/CHF deadlock: steering through US trade doubts and Swiss economic pressures

crypthub

about 5 hours ago

Technical Consolidation

The USD/CHF pair is locked between 0.8850 and 0.8950, its tightest 30‑day band since Q3 2024. The 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages have converged, hinting at an imminent move. Daily volume is down about 18%, and the RSI hovers between 40 and 60, showing no clear bias. Bollinger Bands are at six‑month lows, a classic pre‑breakout signal.

US Trade Uncertainty

Unresolved US‑China and US‑EU trade talks keep dollar momentum muted. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate adjustments removes a typical support for the dollar. US employment remains strong, but manufacturing output slipped 0.3% month‑over‑month, adding to mixed signals. Trade‑related inflation worries further dampen dollar optimism.

Swiss Economic Weakness

Swiss manufacturing PMI has stayed below 50 for three months, and retail sales growth slowed to 1.2% YoY. Inflation is only 0.8% annually, well under the SNB target, reducing pressure for tighter policy. Exports fell 3.2%, with pharmaceuticals barely up, weakening the franc’s fundamentals. The SNB is likely to act only if the pair nears the critical 0.8800 level.

Outlook and Catalysts

The Fed’s March policy meeting and February Swiss inflation data could provide the needed directional cue. Compressed Bollinger Bands and a forming symmetrical triangle suggest a breakout within weeks. Historical consolidations of similar length usually end with sizable moves, so traders are watching for the first clear catalyst.