Bitcoin's recent performance has historically signaled peak prices, but the current situation might not follow that pattern.

Short-Term Holder Activity

Short-term holders (STHs), those who’s purchased bitcoin within 155 days, have increased their holdings by approximately 450,000 BTC since July, now holding roughly 2.6 million BTC. This represents the third cycle of rising STH activity in 2024. The latest increase follows a new record of $126,000.

Historical Trends and Price Peaks

Previous peaks occurred in April 2024 after a $73,000 high and January 2025 concurrent with an $110,000 high. Each cycle shows a diminishing STH cohort, hinting at decreasing market speculation. STH supply’s share of the total circulating supply has decreased from 22% to around 18%.

Long-Term Holder Behavior and Future Expectations

Previously, STHs once held 2.8 million BTC before a decline to 2.1 million BTC when Bitcoin dropped to $76,000. Long-term holders have distributed roughly 250,000 BTC since July. As Bitcoin enters a strong period, STH supply is anticipated to rise above 3 million BTC.