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>>Every cycle’s bottom has been forecast by this Bitcoin metric—what is it indicating now?

Every cycle’s bottom has been forecast by this Bitcoin metric—what is it indicating now?

crypthub

about 8 hours ago

Current Price Outlook

Bitcoin has risen above $70,000 after a weak first quarter, trading around $71,127. The price is only 1.1% lower in the last 24 hours and sits near a psychologically important level. The recent low was just under $63,000 in early February, suggesting a possible short‑term support zone.

Key Metric for Cycle Bottoms

Analysts track the long‑term holder supply in loss, which measures how much of the stock held for more than 155 days is underwater. Historically, when this metric reaches 44%‑53% it signals the end of a bear market. Currently the metric is about 29% and climbing, indicating deterioration but not yet a classic bottom.

Historical Comparisons

During the 2015, 2018 and 2022 cycle bottoms, long‑term loss rates were 53%, 45% and 44% respectively. Those peaks coincided with reduced selling pressure from weaker hands. The present 29% level is well below those thresholds, suggesting the next floor has not formed.

Market Sentiment

Broader crypto sentiment lacks clear bullish momentum, with major assets showing hesitation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads 43, placing it in neutral territory. This neutral mood reinforces the view that Bitcoin is still building toward a true bottom.