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>>TD Securities’ analysis shows that US economic data points to modest growth trends and a weakening momentum.

TD Securities’ analysis shows that US economic data points to modest growth trends and a weakening momentum.

crypthub

about 11 hours ago

Softening US Growth

Recent US data show slower manufacturing, decelerating consumer spending, weakened job creation, and muted business investment. The services sector still expands but at a reduced pace, while housing activity remains below average. These trends indicate the post‑pandemic recovery is entering a mature, slower‑growth phase.

TD Securities Analysis

TD Securities ties the slowdown to three pillars: waning consumer resilience, cautious corporate investment, and softer external demand. Their models blend traditional metrics with high‑frequency data such as credit‑card use and mobility patterns. Chief economist James Orlando warns growth will likely stay moderate through 2025 but the economy remains fundamentally sound.

Market and Fed Implications

Softer growth eases inflation pressure, prompting markets to price in lower interest‑rate expectations. Treasury yields have slipped, equities rotate to defensive sectors, and the dollar has weakened. The Fed must balance supporting growth with curbing inflation, making future rate moves highly data‑dependent.

Global Spillovers

As the world’s largest economy, US slowdown reduces import demand, affecting export‑oriented partners such as Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. Foreign central banks may adjust policy in response to shifting capital flows and growth outlooks. Monitoring US indicators is therefore critical for global economic stability.