With growing U.S. pressure on Venezuela, Polymarket participants are wagering on the timing of Maduro’s departure.

U.S.–Venezuela Tensions

During the last twelve months, relations between the United States and Venezuela have grown increasingly strained as 2025 progresses under President Trump. The conflict has featured U.S. naval actions, the capture of oil tankers, and a series of sanctions directed specifically at Nicolás Maduro’s government.

Market Outlook on Maduro

According to participants on the Polymarket platform, the probability that Maduro will be ousted from power is rising, now estimated at 21 %.