Arthur Hayes suggests Bitcoin's price movements might be influenced by the monetary policies of the United States and China, potentially disrupting its typical four-year cycle.

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Bitcoin Cycle Reassessment

Arthur Hayes argues the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer reliable, shifting focus from halving events to monetary liquidity—specifically US dollar and Chinese yuan flows. Current US and Chinese easing policies differentiate this cycle from previous ones, making fixed timing predictions less effective.

Monetary Policy's Influence

Historically, Bitcoin rallies have correlated with ample liquidity, while cycle endings coincided with tightening. The US Treasury’s actions, Fed rate cut expectations, and a potential shift in Chinese policy all signal a more complex cycle. Monitoring these factors is now crucial for assessing Bitcoin's trajectory.

Outlook and Key Signals

Futures markets anticipate further Fed rate cuts, suggesting ongoing USD liquidity. China's apparent focus on preventing deflation could limit past cycle-ending dynamics. Investors should track Federal Reserve communications, Chinese credit growth, and bank lending trends for a comprehensive view.

Investor Guidance

The focus has shifted from halving schedules to broader monetary conditions. While cyclical patterns may still appear, liquidity’s influence now outweighs fixed timelines. A data-driven approach to tracking these signals is essential for investors.