Bitcoin's Two-Year Trend Unveiled: 12 Months of Gains in 24

crypthub

about 5 hours ago

Bitcoin Price Analysis and Forecast

Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson highlights that 50% of the past 24 months showed Bitcoin gains, projecting an 88% chance of higher prices in 10 months. His model uses monthly data from CoinGlass, tracking a rolling two-year window to identify potential turning points. The calculation assumes average returns of 82%, projecting a $122,000 price target based on historical trends.

Market Odds and Betting Perspectives

Betting markets present a contrasting view, with Polymarket pricing December 2026 as a 17% chance to be the best month. These odds reflect trader sentiment on monthly outperformance, not future price direction. While betting data aggregates collective trader views, it differs from Peterson’s probabilistic approach, emphasizing distinct analytical frameworks.

Price Volatility and Analyst Divergence

Bitcoin’s recent price action remains volatile, trading within a $67,000–$68,000 range amid geopolitical tensions. Safe-haven assets like gold rose, while Bitcoin faced selling pressure. Analysts disagree on near-term outlooks: Michael van de Poppe anticipates short-term rallies, while Peter Brandt predicts a deeper low by late 2026, citing differing technical and macroeconomic signals.

Declining Market Sentiment

Crypto market sentiment remains cautious, with reduced activity around Bitcoin predictions. Flow data from ETFs, derivatives, and on-chain metrics could influence forecasts, but traders remain uncertain. Peterson’s forecast coincides with broader market hesitancy, as traders balance historical trends against current macroeconomic risks.