2026 Fed Rate Forecast: CME FedWatch indicates a 75.6% probability the rate will stay unchanged, with a 41.4% probability of a total 25‑basis‑point reduction before the Jan 28 and Mar 18, 2026 FOMC meetings.

Fed Rate Outlook 2026

The CME FedWatch indicates a 75.6% probability that rates will stay unchanged ahead of the January 28 and March 18, 2026 FOMC meetings, with a 41.4% chance of a cumulative 25‑basis‑point cut.