Kryptonyheter

USDPHP Forecast: BNY Analysis Highlights BSP’s Careful Stance on Future Rate Reductions

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas sets a high threshold for further easing, favoring inflation stability over rapid cuts. BNY Mellon notes inflation stays in target but faces food and transport pressures while growth stays robust. Rate cuts will only come when headline inflation falls into the lower half of the target, expectations anchor and external risks ease. The cautious stance backs the peso, limiting depreciation against a stronger US dollar, though Fed policy can still pressure the PHP. Traders watch rate differentials, risk sentiment and remittances as key USDPHP drivers. Against Bank Indonesia’s dovish tilt and the Bank of Thailand’s neutral stance, the BSP’s hawkishness gives a yield edge that draws stability‑seeking capital. Tighter policy may modestly curb short‑term growth but protects long‑term price stability. Higher borrowing costs hit capital‑intensive firms, while savers gain real deposit returns. The BSP targets a soft landing that keeps inflation credibility and a resilient peso.

Will ESMA’s crackdown put an end to leveraged crypto trading across the EU?

ESMA announced that any crypto product offering leverage must obey existing EU CFD rules, regardless of how it is labeled. Perpetual futures or contracts are treated as contracts for differences because they use borrowed money and settle in cash. The watchdog stresses that name changes cannot evade these regulations. Platforms must impose leverage caps, display clear risk warnings, and automatically close positions that exceed loss thresholds. They are required to offer negative‑balance protection, eliminate bonuses tied to leveraged products, and restrict access to experienced traders only. Enhanced checks on retail users and conflict‑of‑interest safeguards are also mandated. The ruling has prompted firms like Kraken to bar EU customers from new perpetual futures linked to tokenised stocks. Many exchanges are reconsidering product offerings to avoid losing retail access in Europe. While the measures aim to protect investors, they will likely reduce the availability of high‑risk, high‑reward trades.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index Falls to 11, Steering Through the Abyss of Extreme Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 11, placing the market in “Extreme Fear.” This March 2025 reading reflects deep anxiety and risk aversion across crypto assets. Investors are broadly bearish, and price swings are likely to stay volatile. The score blends six weighted factors: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social‑media sentiment (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%) and Google Trends (10%). Each component gauges a different aspect of market mood, producing a composite sentiment number from 0 to 100. Scores near the floor have appeared during the 2022 LUNA/UST collapse and the FTX failure, periods that later turned into market bottoms. Extreme fear can hint at exhausted selling, yet it is not a reliable timing trigger. Past recoveries arrived after prolonged volatility. Long‑term players may use the low reading as a potential entry point while respecting strict risk controls. Emphasize fundamentals, diversify holdings, and avoid reacting to panic headlines. Treat the index as one of many tools, not a standalone signal.

Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation throw their full support behind unrestricted DeFi.

Vitalik Buterin stresses that permissionless DeFi remains a foundational pillar of Ethereum. He views decentralized finance as a key source of value, though not the network’s sole purpose. Buterin urges developers to go beyond simple stablecoins and address deeper financial problems. The EF backs only permissionless, open‑source, security‑first protocols that enhance user control and minimize centralized points. Projects must pass the “walkway test,” continuing to operate if their original team departs. The Foundation seeks solutions that democratize risk management, wealth building, and payments. The EF has created a dedicated DeFi unit to support both mature and experimental protocols and to fund security improvements. Concurrently, Buterin has been selling ETH, directing proceeds to projects aligned with Ethereum’s ideals and signalling possible austerity measures. These moves reinforce the Foundation’s commitment to a resilient, trust‑less ecosystem.

Barkin asserts that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is well‑positioned to address increasing economic risks.

Barkin said the Fed’s monetary policy is “well‑positioned” for 2025. This follows the aggressive rate hikes started in 2022. Inflation has eased but remains above the 2% target while unemployment stays steady. The Fed monitors entrenched inflation in services and housing. Overtightening could curb growth and jobs. External shocks such as supply‑chain disruptions or geopolitical tensions add further risk. Analysts interpret the comment as a patient, data‑driven stance. Economists note the Fed now has optionality to hold or ease. Forward guidance is used to shape market expectations. Balance‑sheet runoff (QT) will continue but slow before any rate change. Rate cuts are not imminent but could come in late 2025 if data support. The Fed aims to keep conditions stable while bringing inflation down.

Gold slides under $5,150 as profit‑taking and a stronger dollar drive a steep correction.

Gold fell below $5,150 per ounce, the sharpest quarterly dip. Profit‑taking after a rally and a jump in the US Dollar Index drove the sell‑off. Futures volume rose 35% and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF shed 4.5 tonnes. The $5,150 level had been a five‑day floor; its breach triggered automated sells. Analysts eye $5,050‑$5,080, near the 50‑day moving average, as next support. A break there could open a drop toward $4,950. A stronger dollar, buoyed by higher‑for‑longer US rates, hurt gold’s appeal. Central‑bank buying and gold’s hedge role keep a floor, making the pullback a possible entry point. Future Fed policy will continue to steer prices.

Bitwise's purchase of Chorus One could open the door to additional staked ETFs.

Bitwise’s purchase of Chorus One broadens its staking services to over 30 blockchains, adding networks such as Solana, Hyperliquid, Monad, Avalanche and Sui.

Susan Collins Indicates the Federal Reserve Will Maintain Rates Longer as Economic Uncertainty Persists.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Federal Reserve will likely keep the federal funds rate steady for an extended period. The FOMC has held the target range unchanged since July 2024, marking the longest pause since the aggressive hikes of 2022‑23. Collins emphasized the Fed’s data‑dependent approach and the need to avoid premature easing. Inflation remains above the 2 % goal, with core PCE at 2.6 % and CPI still elevated, while the labor market shows modest cooling—unemployment at 4.1 % and wage growth slowing to 3.8 %. GDP growth steadies around 2.3 %, providing a backdrop of moderate expansion. These mixed signals give policymakers a reason to maintain restrictive rates for now. Financial markets reacted modestly, with Treasury yields and equity indices largely unchanged, indicating that a stable‑rate outlook was already priced in. Internationally, the ECB and BoE are also on pause, and global uncertainties—from China’s gradual recovery to commodity price volatility—inform U.S. policy. The alignment of major central banks reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance. Historical patterns suggest the Fed may hold peak rates for 12‑18 months before considering cuts. A significant shift in inflation trends, a sharp labor market deterioration, or a financial‑stability shock would likely trigger a policy change. Otherwise, gradual communication and scenario analysis point to continued rate stability through much of 2025.

Gareth Soloway predicts a prolonged decline for stocks, with Bitcoin likely to rally ahead.

Gareth Soloway, president and chief market strategist at Verified Investing, told David Lin on The David Lin Report (TDLR) that U.S. equities may experience an extended period of gradual decline. Soloway added that Bitcoin looks set for a pronounced relief rally and cautioned that the broader market could fall into a Japan‑style stagnation, prompting him to adopt a more bullish stance on the cryptocurrency. Markets opened the week on...

Bitcoin's decline deepens the divide among miners in the stock market

David Pan reports that the rapidly evolving artificial‑intelligence industry is prompting stock‑market investors to single out both winners and losers among Bitcoin‑mining companies.

Ethereum’s market trend remains bearish as on‑chain metrics signal capitulation

Ethereum slipped below the $1,900 support level, prompting a surge of bearish speculation. The broader crypto market has turned sharply down, reinforcing the negative tone. Investor sentiment is now more cautious, with many viewing the pullback as a warning sign. This move has heightened concerns about Ethereum’s short‑term outlook. Analysis by Joao Wedson highlights rising realized losses and weakening demand across key metrics. Leveraged long positions are increasing while open interest and active addresses decline, suggesting capitulation. Retail investors now dominate the long side, and the liquidation heatmap shows high system leverage. These signals point to a possible base formation that could precede a short‑term accumulation phase. Ethereum’s price has settled near its lower Bollinger Band, tracking Bitcoin’s recent movement. Bulls hope for a flatter 20‑day SMA to use the band as support, while bears look for a decisive lower low. The token trades around $1,826, down about 3% in 24 hours. Despite the dip, trading volume surged over 29%, indicating renewed activity.

AUD/JPY outlook: climbs toward 110.00 amid accelerating yen weakness

The AUD/JPY pair has climbed to 109.85, just shy of the 110.00 psychological barrier, marking a 3.2% weekly gain. A “golden cross” formed as the 50‑day moving average crossed above the 200‑day line, while the RSI sits at 68, indicating strong bullish pressure. Trading volume is up 40% versus the monthly average, confirming institutional participation. Key resistance sits at 110.25, with support levels at 108.50 and 107.20. Japan’s ultra‑accommodative policy, including yield‑curve control and negative rates, keeps the yen depressed. Persistent inflation above target and a trade deficit further erode yen demand. The ~4.25% interest‑rate gap allows investors to borrow cheap yen and buy higher‑yielding Australian dollars, fueling demand for AUD/JPY. Historical divergences have produced similar rally patterns, suggesting continued upside potential. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates four times since late‑2024, leaving the cash rate at 4.35% and supporting the AUD. Low unemployment, robust commodity exports such as iron ore and LNG, and rising lithium production add fundamental backing. China’s manufacturing PMI returned to expansion, hinting at stronger demand for Australian raw materials. These factors together reinforce the AUD’s resilience against major currencies. Analysts project AUD/JPY could test 112.00 by mid‑2025 if the rate differential and risk appetite persist. However, a sudden BOJ policy tighten, a commodity price slump, or a global risk‑off could reverse the trend. The RBA may deliver another 25‑bp hike by June, further widening differentials. Traders should watch the 110.25 ceiling for a breakout and the 108.50 floor for support.

Regulating Crypto Leverage: ESMA’s Key Decision to Treat Derivatives as CFDs

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) plans to treat cryptocurrency leverage products such as perpetual futures on Bitcoin and Ethereum as Contracts for Difference (CFDs). This would bring them under the EU’s MiFID II framework. The proposal was announced in early 2025 and follows ESMA’s mandate to safeguard market stability. Classification as CFDs would impose strict leverage caps for retail clients, possibly as low as 2:1 for highly volatile assets. Mandatory risk warnings and standardized margin‑close‑out procedures would also apply. Firms must implement systems to manage conflicts of interest and prevent client disadvantage. The move complements the MiCA regulation, which already governs spot crypto markets but leaves derivatives untouched. By creating a single rulebook, ESMA aims to eliminate regulatory arbitrage across member states. Analysts expect reduced trading volumes on EU platforms but greater consumer protection. Platforms will need to adapt funding‑rate mechanisms, upgrade real‑time disclosures, and automate liquidation triggers. The EU approach differs from the U.S. CFTC and Singapore’s MAS regimes, complicating cross‑border compliance. Nonetheless, the EU model may influence other jurisdictions toward tighter oversight of leveraged crypto trading.

The European Securities and Markets Authority delivers a strong caution concerning leveraged crypto derivatives.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has classified Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures as contracts for difference (CFDs) within the EU and introduced new leverage limits for these products. In response to ESMA's ruling, Kraken announced that it will exclude EU customers from its platform. Bitcoin remains in a downtrend, hovering around the $64,000 level. Goldman Sachs warned of a potential collapse in the cryptocurrency market. Audits conducted under the Markets in Crypto‑Assets (MiCA) regulation are becoming increasingly stringent.

Kraken Introduces Perpetual Futures for Tokenized Stocks

Kraken has debuted a new offering of tokenized stock perpetual futures, expanding its derivatives suite. The instrument provides non‑U.S. users with continuous, 24‑hour access and the option to trade with up to 20× leverage through Kraken’s xStocks platform. Available in more than 110 countries, the product has already generated roughly $25 billion in trading volume following its launch.

The Treasury Department imposes sanctions on a Russian broker dealing in stolen U.S. cyber tools.

This is the inaugural invocation of the Protecting American Intellectual Property Act. The legislation targets a company accused of brokering stolen U.S. cyber tools.

Uber’s AI leader announces that engineers have developed a groundbreaking chatbot modeled after CEO Dara Khosrowshahi.

Uber engineers have created “Dara AI,” a chatbot that mimics CEO Dara Khosrowshahi to help teams rehearse presentations and anticipate questions before meeting the real executive. The tool is now used across Uber’s global operations as a standard pre‑meeting prep step. Khosrowshahi says the chatbot fine‑tunes slide decks, allowing more polished and focused discussions. About 90 % of Uber’s software engineers incorporate AI tools daily, and roughly 30 % are “power users” redesigning the company’s architecture with AI capabilities. This dual role of builders and architects is reshaping job functions rather than merely automating tasks. Khosrowshahi reports a productivity jump unlike anything seen before at a company operating in 70 + countries. The chatbot illustrates a deeper shift toward AI‑driven decision support, setting Uber apart from firms that limit AI to customer service or data analysis. While it standardizes preparation, leaders warn against over‑reliance that could stifle novel ideas. Uber’s bottom‑up innovation, executive backing, and gradual rollout offer a template for other organizations exploring internal AI solutions.

Analyst Highlights a Crucial Price Signal for XRP Traders

XRP has slipped ~28% YTD, now around $1.32. Futures open interest fell to $2.3 bn, showing less speculation. Analysts view open interest as a participation gauge, not a price driver. Open interest usually climbs in strong rallies and falls in corrections. 2021’s rise to $2 saw OI rise to $2 bn; post‑2024 election rally to $3.40 paired with OI near $7.8 bn. Mid‑2025’s jump to $3.60 coincided with a record $10.9 bn OI before both receded. Higher prices lead traders to add leveraged spots, boosting OI and liquidity. Rapid OI spikes can flag excess leverage and higher correction risk. Dollar‑based OI reporting may exaggerate activity when prices rise. The ongoing decline and falling OI suggest limited speculation, not buying. A true recovery would need price stability plus a sustained OI rise. Thus OI is a useful supplement, not a sole forecast tool.

What’s driving PayPal’s surge today?

PayPal shares jumped nearly 7% after Bloomberg reported that Stripe is exploring a possible acquisition. Talks are in early stages, with Stripe weighing a full purchase or only selected assets. The rally followed a recent slump that saw the stock fall more than 19% year‑to‑date and about a third in 2025. Weak profit guidance and a recent CEO change, naming HP’s Enrique Lores, added to the turmoil. Stripe’s market value rose to $159 billion after a secondary stock sale, up sharply from $91.5 billion a year earlier. The fintech firm expects its revenue suite to hit a $1 billion annual run rate this year and recently acquired billing startup Metronome. Ranked 10th on CNBC’s Disruptor 50, Stripe’s leadership says an IPO is not a current priority while it evaluates the PayPal deal. Analysts view PayPal as deeply undervalued, noting its $2 trillion annual transaction volume and ownership of Venmo, a leading U.S. P2P network. They highlight PayPal’s strategic network assets as attractive to firms seeking a larger role in commerce. The renewed interest comes as AI‑related risk reports have unsettled payment‑software stocks, warning that future AI agents could pressure transaction fees.

Bitcoin falls, erasing half of its October peak at the session’s low

US Senator Initiates Troubling Inquiry into Binance’s Iran Sanctions Compliance Lapses

Sen. Richard Blumenthal has launched a Senate Homeland Security Committee probe of Binance. The investigation claims Binance allowed Iranian users to trade and fired compliance staff who flagged sanctions issues. Binance must produce records of Iranian activity since 2018 and related personnel actions. Binance paid over $4 billion in 2023 to settle AML and sanctions violations. New reports say internal audits found partner firms moving Iranian money, indicating lingering risks. The Senate seeks to confirm whether Binance’s present controls remedy those gaps. Confirmed breaches could trigger further actions by OFAC, FinCEN and other agencies. Regulators may tighten audits, licensing and require real‑time crypto monitoring. The case would cement that crypto platforms face the same sanctions rules as banks, shaking market confidence.

GBP/JPY outlook: sharp rally as PM Takaichi’s warning of a BOJ rate hike fuels market turbulence.

The Japanese Prime Minister’s remarks on possible BOJ tightening sparked a swift yen sell‑off. GBP/JPY jumped about 1.8% during Asian hours, one of the largest moves this quarter. The pair broke the 188.50 resistance that had held for two weeks. Trading volume surged to roughly 245% of its 30‑day average. The yen has consistently over‑reacted to BOJ policy cues in 2024‑25, with past pivots moving USD/JPY over 4% in three sessions. Similar volatility appears across yen crosses, ranging from 1.5% to 2.7% after BOJ hints. This pattern reflects Japan’s long ultra‑accommodative stance and the market’s carry‑trade exposure. BoJ probability of a 10‑bp hike rose to 35% for April and 68% for June, signalling tightening ahead. The Bank of England holds rates at 4.75%, creating a 525‑bp differential that fuels capital into the pound. UK data show mixed signals—services growth, manufacturing contraction, core inflation at 3.2% and unemployment at 4.1%. The widening interest‑rate gap remains the chief catalyst for GBP/JPY moves. Key support now sits at 188.50, with resistance at 190.00 and the 2024 high of 191.35. RSI reached 68 and ADX rose to 32, indicating a strong but not yet overbought trend. Risks include Asian geopolitical shocks, unexpected UK economic surprises, and possible BOJ intervention if yen moves become disorderly. Traders should watch upcoming BoJ and BoE communications, plus UK employment and wage data.

Thinking You've Already Abandoned Shiba Inu? There Might Still Be Hope.

Meme coins have slumped sharply, with Shiba Inu down over 92% from its 2021 peak. More than 60% of holders are now in loss, casting doubt on the sector’s outlook. Despite this, some investors still hope for a price rebound. Crypto analyst Shib Spain sees Shiba Inu entering an accumulation phase after a retracement, potentially setting a bear‑trap. He predicts a 22‑fold rise from the trap’s low, around $0.0000045, which would be a 2,200% gain and surpass its previous high of $0.00008. His chart projects a top near $0.00018, roughly double the current peak. CoinCodex’s 1‑3‑month model predicts a modest 14.26% increase, pushing the price above $0.000007 despite the Extreme Fear reading on the Shiba Inu Fear & Greed Index. Volatility remains high at 8.89%, and overall market sentiment stays bearish.

The Meme Coin ICO List highlights the five meme cryptocurrencies poised for a surge, with APEMARS leading the pack in 2026.

APE​MARS (APRZ) is in Stage 9 at $0.00007841, with $243K raised and a target listing price of $0.0055, implying a ~6,900% ROI. Team tokens are locked for 12 months, promoting long‑term alignment and disciplined reward distribution. A $10,000 buy now could yield roughly $700K at listing, showcasing the project's high upside potential. Shiba Inu (SHIB) remains the veteran benchmark, offering ecosystem upgrades but limited breakout potential. BullZilla (BZIL) is in its final presale stage, priced at $0.000599 with an 8.8× upside and bonus codes that can boost ROI to nearly 4,000%. Apeing (APEING) uses a whitelist model for community‑driven growth, while Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) relies on viral branding to spark speculative spikes. Capital is rotating quickly, compressing meme cycles and rewarding early, disciplined positioning over waiting for confirmation. Projects that combine scarcity, locked leadership incentives, and clear ROI paths, like APE​MARS, stand out amid the hype. Traders focusing on structured presales may capture the strongest asymmetry in the 2026 meme‑coin landscape.