XRP ETF Surge: Analyst Forecasts $168 for XRP Using This Model

crypthub

1 day ago

Emergence of XRP ETFs

Canary Capital’s XRPC, Bitwise’s XRP fund and Grayscale’s upcoming GXRP have reignited interest in institutional exposure to XRP. Analysts are debating whether these vehicles can generate sustained capital inflows. The discussion centers on how ETF participation might shape XRP’s long‑term valuation.

Bitcoin ETF Flow Benchmark

Zach Rector examined Bitcoin’s ETF cycle, noting $62.25 billion of inflows and $24.31 billion of outflows from early 2024 to October 2025. After netting outflows, roughly $37.94 billion entered the Bitcoin market, supporting its rise above $100 k and a market‑cap increase of $1.76 trillion. This equates to a multiplier of about 46× the net ETF capital.

Applying the Model to XRP

Rector compared XRP’s recent $456 million weekly outflow to Bitcoin’s multi‑billion flows, suggesting XRP is more sensitive to inflows. Using XRP’s $1.95 price, 60.25 billion supply and a $117.5 billion market cap, he projected price scenarios with 50×, 100× and 200× multipliers. For example, a 100× multiplier with $20 billion inflow could push XRP toward $35, while a 200× scenario with $30 billion might approach $101.

Potential Inflows and Cautions

Rector highlighted that Bitcoin attracted $50 billion in ETF inflows within two years, and XRP could capture similar sums over a longer horizon. Estimates from JPMorgan and Canary Capital range from $4 billion to $10 billion in the first month of trading. He stressed these are model‑based scenarios, not price predictions, and investors should conduct thorough research.