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>>Base metal prices rise as tariff concerns generate market uncertainty, according to Commerzbank analysis.

Base metal prices rise as tariff concerns generate market uncertainty, according to Commerzbank analysis.

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about 16 hours ago

Market Volatility and Tariff Fears

Early 2025 saw sharp swings in base‑metal prices as renewed tariff concerns sparked buying pressure. Copper futures rose 8.2%, while aluminum and zinc gained 5.7% and 4.1% respectively. Traders link the moves to possible supply‑chain disruptions from trade‑policy shifts.

Tariff Outlook as Primary Driver

Commerzbank cites speculative tariff talks as the main catalyst, noting that metals react strongly to policy signals because they are core manufacturing inputs. Ongoing reviews of EU import duties, North American agreements, and Southeast Asian export rules feed the uncertainty. Historical bouts of trade disputes produced similar price spikes, suggesting a repeat pattern.

Price Performance and Inventory Context

Copper hit its highest level since late 2024, driven by demand in electricity and renewable projects. Aluminum followed, though with milder volatility, while nickel and zinc showed modest gains. Inventory levels remain normal, indicating that price moves stem mainly from anticipation rather than immediate shortages.

Fundamental Support and Future Risks

Global manufacturing, especially in EVs and clean‑energy sectors, continues to lift metal consumption. Mining faces higher energy costs and stricter environmental rules, adding upward pressure. Elevated shipping costs and port congestion amplify tariff‑related effects, so analysts advise close monitoring of trade policies, currency swings, and supply‑chain developments.