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>>EUR/USD outlook: bullish reversal pushes past 1.1650 as moving averages signal a pivotal breakout

EUR/USD outlook: bullish reversal pushes past 1.1650 as moving averages signal a pivotal breakout

crypthub

about 7 hours ago

Technical Breakout

The EUR/USD pair has cleared the 1.1650 resistance, the highest level in three months. The move places price above the 50‑day SMA (1.1580) and the 200‑day SMA (1.1520), providing strong support. RSI has risen above 50, volume is up 25% versus the 30‑day average, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover.

Momentum Indicators

The 20‑day EMA sits at 1.1605, reinforcing a bullish alignment not seen since late‑2024. ADX has climbed to 28, indicating a developing trend, while the stochastic oscillator exits oversold territory. An emerging inverse head‑and‑shoulders pattern targets near 1.1850.

Fundamental Catalysts

A more hawkish ECB statement and weaker U.S. retail sales have pressured the dollar. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside at 2.4% annually, whereas U.S. manufacturing contracted for two months. Geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe is shifting capital toward European assets.

Risks and Outlook

The upcoming Fed meeting and European election uncertainty could reverse momentum. Some analysts warn the pair may be approaching overbought levels and cite prior breakouts that faded within two weeks. Confirmation will depend on sustained closes above 1.1650 and continued support from moving averages, with a potential target around 1.1800.