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>>Following Polymarket's remarkably accurate prediction of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, the Nobel Committee is looking into a possible information breach.

Following Polymarket's remarkably accurate prediction of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, the Nobel Committee is looking into a possible information breach.

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1 day ago

Nobel Prize Leak and Polymarket

The Nobel Committee is investigating unusual betting activity on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, surrounding this year’s Peace Prize winner. A trader known as "6741" made substantial bets on María Corina Machado’s victory before the official announcement. This activity, combined with a surge in betting from another user, "GayPride," has prompted scrutiny and suspicion of a potential leak.

Trader Profits and Market Reactions

Trader “6741” profited over $50,000 from the rapid shift in odds, while “GayPride” gained over $85,000. The unusual market activity drew attention online, with Harvard professor Jason Furman commenting on the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. Polymarket and the Nobel Institute have not responded to detailed inquiries about the incident.

Polymarket's Growth and Legal Status

Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, has seen significant growth, recently attracting a $2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange. Operating offshore and technically banned in the U.S., it exists in a legal gray zone regarding insider trading laws. The platform's success includes accurate predictions of political and pop culture events, signaling the growing mainstream appeal of prediction markets.