Polymarket refuses to pay out on Venezuela invasion wagers, provoking severe backlash.
Polymarket announced it will not pay out on wagers tied to a U.S. invasion of Venezuela. The platform said the capture of President Maduro did not meet its “invasion” criteria. This refusal left traders facing unexpected losses and sparked widespread criticism. More than $10.5 million was placed on contracts predicting a U.S. military action by Jan 31 2026. One trader stood to gain nearly $500 k before the raid was announced. After Polymarket’s ruling, odds collapsed and many bettors saw their potential payouts disappear. Polymarket clarified that the contract required “U.S. operations intended to establish control” over Venezuelan territory. A quick “snatch‑and‑extract” mission to capture Maduro was deemed insufficient. Users argued the platform moved the goalposts and called the decision absurd. Web3 prediction markets have topped $13 billion in cumulative volume despite a cooling crypto market. New entrants like Opinion (backed by YZi Labs) and Kalshi (partnering with CNN) are expanding the space. The Polymarket dispute highlights ongoing concerns about rule clarity and fairness across the industry.
