Arthur Hayes, BitMEX's founder, attributes the recent Bitcoin price surge to policies enacted by both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's price is primarily influenced by actions of governments and their currencies, not its halving cycles. He believes societies always compete over scarce resources, and money serves as a tool to allocate those resources. Governments often manipulate money supply, sometimes benevolently, but often as "despotic monetary dictators," leading to inevitable currency debasement. This control is driven by a resistance to waiting for technological breakthroughs that could create abundance. Hayes identifies three previous cycles linked to global financial events and monetary policy. The Genesis cycle (2009-2013) saw Bitcoin surge with QE, then collapse when money expansion slowed. The ICO cycle (2013-2017) was fueled by Chinese liquidity but ended with dollar tightening. The COVID cycle (2017-2021) saw unprecedented money printing but ended with inflation and policy shifts. Hayes believes the current cycle is unique, as America's global dominance is waning and politicians are manipulating currencies to mask changes. He anticipates easier money policies from both the U.S. and China, driven by Trump's plans and Xi’s directives. He suggests observing Washington and Beijing, as their monetary decisions will largely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory and drive its continued rise.
