Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindles to a trickle.
Dated Brent hit a record $144 per barrel while June futures traded around $96.51. The gap signals a physical shortage far beyond what financial contracts reflect. Morgan Stanley notes futures are just paper, whereas Dated Brent shows oil ready to ship. Dynamix CEO warns the $144 price is a warning of real barrel scarcity as the strait stays blocked. The Strait of Hormuz, handling about 20% of global oil and LNG, has seen transits plunge from ~130 to under ten daily. Only five to seven vessels crossed on recent days, leaving more than 600 ships, including 325 tankers, stranded. US‑Iran disputes over “safe passage” further limit traffic, with experts expecting no more than 10‑15 safe passages a day. Nations are securing other routes: Singapore and Australia are drafting a binding energy‑supply pact. Japan plans to release reserve oil covering 20 days of consumption and to use routes that bypass the strait. Despite these moves, tanker rates stay high and supply constraints are expected to linger.
